Nintendo has released what many industry analysts are describing as a "conservative" sales forecast for its upcoming Switch 2 console, citing ongoing uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs and their potential impact on production and pricing. During its recent financial results announcement, Nintendo projected it will sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million games in the current fiscal year, which concludes on March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 is set to launch globally on June 5.
The company stated that its forecast assumes the current U.S. tariff rates—implemented on April 10—will remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, Nintendo acknowledged that any adjustments to these tariffs could affect its projections. “We will continue to monitor the situation closely to respond effectively to changes in market conditions,” the company noted in its official statement.
Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit forecast as “conservative.” He suggested in a social media post that Nintendo is likely accounting for the unpredictability surrounding tariffs, pricing strategy, and manufacturing challenges, despite observing strong pre-order momentum. Ahmad further explained that if the tariff situation improves, Nintendo may revise its forecast upward. However, he also highlighted that existing supply chain disruptions and the looming threat of increased tariffs have already created a complex environment for launching a new console.
It's worth noting that achieving 15 million units sold within its first year would position the Switch 2 among the most successful console launches in history. This figure would surpass the original Switch’s first-year sales of 14.87 million units, marking a significant milestone for Nintendo.
AnswerSee ResultsThere is no doubt that demand for the Switch 2 is exceptionally high. After an initial delay linked to tariff-related logistical concerns, pre-orders for the Switch 2 officially opened on April 24 with the console price locked at $449.99 — and consumer response was exactly what you’d expect for a next-gen system from Nintendo. Additionally, Nintendo has issued a cautionary note to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, stating that delivery by the release date cannot be guaranteed due to overwhelming demand.
For more details on where and how to secure your Switch 2 ahead of launch, check out IGN’s comprehensive Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.
