Gaming market analyst DFC Intelligence forecasts Nintendo Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This impressive prediction surpasses all competitors, even before the console's release. Read on for details on this remarkable forecast. Switch 2: The Predicted "Clear Winner"
80 Million Units by 2028 Projected
Image from Nintendo
DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, positions Nintendo's Switch 2 as the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is predicted to lead the console market, outpacing Microsoft and Sony. This projection stems from the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 launch, giving it a significant head start and minimizing initial competition. The report estimates sales of "15-17 million units in 2025, and over 80 million units by 2028." Such high demand may even challenge Nintendo's production capacity.
Image from Mario official Nintendo site
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, a potential three-year gap (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026) would solidify the Switch 2's dominance. The report suggests only one post-Switch 2 console will achieve significant success, possibly a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong game franchises.
Nintendo's Switch is already experiencing unprecedented success, surpassing the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, becoming the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.
A Booming Video Game Industry
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the gaming industry. CEO David Cole highlights the industry's 20x growth over three decades, predicting a return to healthy growth by the end of the decade after a recent slowdown. 2025 is anticipated to be a particularly strong year, driven by new releases. In addition to the Switch 2, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI is also slated for a 2025 release, further boosting overall sales.
The gaming audience continues to expand, projected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027. The rise of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" via portable systems broadens accessibility. The growth of esports and gaming influencers also contributes to increased hardware purchases across PC and consoles.
