Analyst Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Sales for 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust US sales for the Nintendo Switch 2, projecting approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction echoes the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded even Nintendo's own expectations. The analyst's prediction assumes a successful launch, highlighting the importance of timely release, high-quality hardware, and a competitive game lineup.

While considerable excitement surrounds the Switch 2's unveiling, translating this online buzz into actual sales remains uncertain. The console's performance in 2025 hinges on several key factors, primarily launch timing and the strength of its initial game offerings. A pre-summer launch, potentially timed around Japan's Golden Week, could significantly boost sales.

Piscatella's projection places the Switch 2 at roughly one-third of total US console sales in 2025 (excluding handheld PCs). He anticipates potential supply chain challenges, mirroring the original Switch's launch difficulties, though Nintendo's preparedness remains unknown. The company might have learned from past experiences and pre-emptively addressed potential stock shortages.

Despite optimistic sales projections for the Switch 2, Piscatella predicts the PlayStation 5 will retain its top spot in US console sales. While the Switch 2's hype is significant, the anticipated release of highly anticipated titles like Grand Theft Auto 6 on the PS5 could significantly impact sales. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success will depend on the console's hardware capabilities and the appeal of its launch titles.